Checking In on MLB Standings at Memorial Day
As Memorial Day marks a significant checkpoint in the 2025 MLB season, teams have already played a substantial portion of their games, offering a clearer picture of potential playoff contenders. According to data shared on X by Codify, current playoff chances highlight the Los Angeles Dodgers leading with a 98% probability of making the postseason, followed by the Detroit Tigers at 90% and the New York Yankees at 88%. This early snapshot, often indicative of final outcomes, shows that historically, 59% of teams leading their divisions on June 1 end up winning them, as noted in posts on X.
The National League East has been particularly dynamic, with the Philadelphia Phillies emerging as a dominant force. Reports indicate that the Phillies are atop the NL East standings, showcasing a red-hot performance that has surprised many analysts. Meanwhile, in the American League, the Yankees and Tigers are showing significant improvements compared to preseason predictions, with playoff chance increases of 26% and 45% respectively since the start of the season, based on FanGraphs data shared on X.
Biggest Surprises and Disappointments of 2025
Among the biggest surprises this season are the Detroit Tigers and San Diego Padres, whose playoff probabilities have surged by 45% and 31% respectively since preseason forecasts, according to FanGraphs data posted on X. The Tigers' unexpected rise has caught the attention of fans and experts alike, positioning them as serious contenders in the AL Central. Similarly, the Padres have defied expectations with a strong showing in the NL West, climbing to a 60% chance of making the playoffs.
On the flip side, disappointments include teams like the Atlanta Braves, whose playoff chances have dropped significantly since preseason, now sitting at 62% compared to an earlier high of over 90%, per recent updates on X. Other teams, such as the Milwaukee Brewers and Pittsburgh Pirates, have seen declines of 20% or more in their postseason odds, reflecting struggles to maintain consistency through the first third of the season. These shifts underscore the unpredictable nature of baseball, where early promise can quickly fade.
Playoff Predictions and Key Contenders
Looking ahead, experts are predicting a strong postseason field for 2025, with the Dodgers almost guaranteed a spot at 98% probability, as shared on X by Codify. The New York Mets and Seattle Mariners also stand out with 83% and 80% chances respectively, suggesting they could be formidable in October. These predictions align with current standings and performance metrics that emphasize pitching strength and offensive output as key indicators of success.
Injuries remain a wildcard, as seen with Philadelphia Phillies star Bryce Harper, who recently exited a game after being hit by a pitch on his right elbow. Thankfully, X-rays were negative, providing relief to fans and the organization, as reported on MLB's official website. As the season progresses, maintaining player health will be crucial for teams like the Phillies, who are currently positioned well at 76% playoff probability, to secure their spot in the postseason race.